Are you feeling lucky, punk?

‘But Charlie, what about luck?'

This is the question I was asked the other week when discussing what it means to be strategic.

To what extent do skills such as horizon scanning, assumption challenging and thinking three steps ahead really play in an organisation's success?

It's clear the COVID pandemic has created winners and losers – accelerating well known trends with both unintended and unexpected consequences - but what role does luck play?

Let's start with the clear winners – Big Tech: 'FAATMAN is up $1.7tn in 2020' (thank you Chartr, big fan of your work!).

Other sectors have also benefitted: pharmaceutical groups (and testing companies), online grocery retailers, payment companies (especially payment processors and credit businesses), and global streaming services (Disney+  hit their 5 year targets in less than 9 months!). 

Retailers offering 'lockdown necessities' – by design or by chance – have also seen some surprising trends. Beyond hair clippers, yeast and gym equipment, some of the less obvious candidates include tracksuit bottoms (or 'sweatpants'), roller skates and scented candles (Net a Porter reported a 130% year on year increase in sales!).

In other industries, it's less clear cut:

Uber find themselves experiencing two sides of the same coin - their losses have narrowed as delivery growth (up 130%) continues to outpace a drop in ride-sharing revenue (down 50%). 

Perhaps it's better to hedge your bets?

In the restaurant trade, whilst many businesses have battled to survive through lock down restrictions, some of those who turned their hand to delivery have seen incredible returns.

So just how much of that is down to luck, as opposed to the speed and the substance of the response to pandemic conditions - and the hard work that went into the preceding years and months?

Over the past few weeks, I've spoken to senior leaders from a range of sectors across the globe - in organisations large and small - and what's clear is (for those that did) they have all benefited from taking time out to spend time with their leadership teams.

Reflecting on the past, listening to and learning from their colleagues, their customers, their partners; considering, and investing in, their longer term futures and, crucially, planning for a broad range of potential scenarios. Asking 'what if?', and thinking through 'if, then.'.

Establishing a 'bigger picture' view has helped them to not only enter - or exit - markets, and invest in - or avoid - certain technologies or business models, it has also helped them to see the importance of balancing this ‘bigger picture’ view with being more agile, better prepared and able to adapt and flex. Keeping one eye on the wider horizon, while focusing on execution. Continuously checking to see if they were doing the right thing - and doing it as well as they could.

The same leaders were all surprisingly humble, too.

Despite their impressive achievements in such volatile, uncertain conditions, they all recognised the invaluable role that their teams and people have played – fostering environments in which people feel safe to ask questions and constructively challenge.  

They also happened to have invested heavily in recent years in digital technologies that now underpin their core capabilities – providing an advantage through the crisis over those who were  less prepared.    

Few foresaw the pandemic looming even if it wasn't completely unexpected - but those that responded best and at speed did so because plans to respond to an event of this magnitude already existed. The conversations had already happened - and remained ongoing.

Their success came down to preparation colliding with chance.

So luck played its part, for sure - but I'd argue it's the dividend of hard work and strategic thinking, planning and leadership.

As Peter Drucker, “the man who invented management”, famously said: "The best way to predict the future is to create it".

It'll be interesting to see how certain sectors and industries change, are restructured and if some ever fully recover. 

I'm sure some will come out stronger, living to tell the tale of 'riding their luck' (and in the case of the 'other' Zoom who benefitted more than many last year – see image below – they may have a point!). 

But I'd argue the majority that succeed will have made their own luck. 

So punk, how lucky are you feeling?

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I'm Charlie a strategic advisor, business consultant and performance coach. I've spent the last 20+ years helping hundreds of world class organisations to create, refresh and successfully execute their strategies and plans.

In this fast changing, uncertain world, I’m on a mission to help as many people as possible discover the benefits of ‘thinking strategically’.